Are we destined for a 'brown' Christmas?

(Editor's note: The following is the Department of Natural Resource's "Question of the Week.")

Question: There’s not much snow on the ground in Minnesota yet. Are we destined for a “brown” Christmas?

Answer: The chances of Minnesotans enjoying a white Christmas vary from place to place. A white Christmas is loosely defined as having one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas Day.

The best chances of having a white Christmas is almost guaranteed in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and most of the Arrowhead region. The odds decrease the farther south and west you go, and tip more in favor of a “brown” Christmas. For example, in far southwestern Minnesota the chances of a white Christmas are a little better than 60 percent. In 106 years of snow depth measurements in the Twin Cities, a white Christmas happens about 72 percent of the time. From 1905 to 2010 there were 30 years with either "zero" or a "trace" of snow. The last time the Twin Cities saw a “brown” Christmas was in 2006. The deepest snow cover on Dec. 25 was in 1983 with a hefty 20 inches in the Twin Cities, 21 inches in International Falls and 28 inches in Duluth.

To find out the probability of a white Christmas in your area, log on to http://climate.umn.edu/doc/journal/white_christmas.htm

- Pete Boulay, DNR climatologist

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